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Suppose an individual places out an post about the Best Shares you can buy in 2014″. The author features of extensive investigate on around hundreds of shares and it has collected a panel of monetary gurus to come back to the conclusions. The panel includes economics professor from Ivy League faculty, famed economic media writer, M&A chief of major bank, and CFO of a major insurance company. They all have their MBAs and PhDs, constantly rub shoulders with senior Wall St figures and years of economic experience.
The write-up then goes on to discuss a number of stocks that are not recommended. Again a list of reasons are given for why your money should not be going into these stocks. But then, for a fairly astute private investor yourself (however not a professional), you find that some from the statements about these other shares appear to contradict opinions from other sources. No problem, opinions often differ in these things.
However, as you a little deeper, you find that some statements regarding these bad” stocks are not true. P/E ratios are wrong. Revenue numbers are incorrect. A bad stock had low growth rate in revenue for the past 5 years” when a recommended stock (inside a similiar business) had exactly the same numbers. Claims that other articles also say X or Y stock is bad never pan out when you actually read those articles. 2 different companies are described in different ways when they are actually very similar. The list goes on.
Individually, they could not detract from the overall conclusions, but the pattern is obvious. The panel probably know some shares and their companies nicely, but are ignorant on others. The significant number of straightforward mistakes indicates sloppy exploration or lack of it. You start to get the feeling that perhaps there are subjective biases against the bad” shares. It also undermines everything else in the short article that may perhaps be correct or helpful, because you will now start to doubt the validity of other statements made in the report.
What conclusion can you draw? The backgrounds from the panel suggest that IF they had done a thorough and good job, the report can be good. Afterall, they are recommending STOCKS”, shouldn’t they know better or at least try to? Years of experience in the economical world alone is not sufficient to give credibility towards the post.
Or perhaps the panel did put in good effort, but the writing was just terrible and sloppy. They might have put their names around the list without actually reading the piece. The panelists have done other good work in the past, but that is definitely irrelevant for this instance. This short article is about picking shares, not some high level macroeconomic analysis. We are not asking for detailed analysis of every stock metric, but when even uncomplicated facts are misstated, along with obvious biases, it just does not pass muster. From a critical reader’s standpoint, it is barely a C-.
BTW, for those of you who are not familiar with the mainstream financial media, any write-up with the title The most effective Stocks to Invest in ….” is total garbage, really don’t waste your time. There is no such thing as Best” in shares.