## Results Estimation of temporal change in

3. Results

3.1. Estimation of temporal change in growth rate

Table 2 summarizes the point estimates and credible intervals of r1 and ρ (and the other parameters) for the three cases of step-wise change in growth rate that are illustrated in Fig. 1. In Case A, the estimate of r1 is accurate which is reasonable since the BX517（PDK1 inhibitor2） is observed from a small population size up to carrying capacity. The point estimate of ρ indicate a reduction in growth rate ρ < 1 although the credible interval is wide and include 1, so the possibility of no change cannot be rejected. When the population is observed starting at carrying capacity, Case B, the estimates of both r1 and ρ show that the data contain little information about these parameters and the resulting posterior distributions are close to their respective vague priors. As the ‘ideal’ situation for observing change in growth rate, where there are two separate growth phases, before and after the change, Case C gives us the most accurate estimates of both r1 and ρ.