Flood forecasting is one of the most

Water Quality
secured two successive multi-year investments totalling
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Probabilistic flood forecasting; Europe; Monetary benefit; Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX); European Flood Awareness System
1. Introduction
Flood forecasts provide essential information for local and national authorities who NSC 405020 must take decisions on actions (such as flood gate closures or evacuations) to protect citizens, property and infrastructure, particularly in urban areas and industrial zones. Flood forecasts are important for those authorities making decisions on the availability of disaster risk finance (Jongman et al., 2014a and Jongman et al., 2014b). Floods also represent a threat to the environment and agriculture as was observed during the 2014 January floods in the UK (Stephens and Cloke, 2014).
In order for early flood warnings to be translated into decisions, clear mandates and responsibilities along the early warning chain from forecast to decision maker must exist. This is particularly important when assessing continental and global cross-border early warning systems, such as EFAS, as translocation can serve both as the main source of information in countries which do not have their own early warning system established, and also as an alternative source of information which can provide ‘added value’ where there is already national capability for monitoring and forecasting. In the latter case, civil protection actions are taken based on all the information available, and thus the benefit of this alternative information is not straightforward to determine. In addition, at the European level, the EFAS information is used directly for planning of aid and support before and after major flood events (EC, 2014a); again the monetary benefit is not straightforward to determine.